Poker Risk Management

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4. Poker Risk Management Definition

People gamble all the time, but we don’t think of it that way.

We think we are making decisions, not gambling — and often don’t see it as taking risk either. But we are.

The key is whether we are making what we consider a “sure bet,” where we believe the outcomes of our decisions are more likely than not to be (net) favorable, considering both the upside and downside — especially compared to the alternatives.

Risk management in options trading is my number one rule that I always follow. It should be yours too. Never forget that putting your money at risk makes you vulnerable to market movement and emotional swings. Before you sit down to make your first trade, you must establish rules of risk tolerance that will keep you in the game. A discussion of risk management when investing by our friends at TradingHD applies in multiple ways to situations often faced by poker players. By understanding its risk profile, a casino or card club can apply appropriate risk management processes to its BSA compliance program to identify and mitigate its operational risk. Risk Poker Planning Poker is often used for agile approaches, such as scrum, in order to prepare an estimate relating to the size of the backlog items (for user stories for example). Major differences are often ascertained in respect to story points assigned by different participants. A Risk Management Framework The PMI’s latest guidance on risk management comes from the PMBOK v5 Guide Exposure Draft, it describes a six step process for risk management: 1. Plan Risk Management 2. Identify Risks 3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 5. Plan Risk Responses 6.

Related Article: Effective Risk Management Starts With Better Decision-Making

Quality Information Informs Quality Decisions

For example, when I quit my job with Coopers & Lybrand in the UK and decided to move to the US, I was gambling.

• I had no assurance I would get a job in the US (although I was fairly confident), and certainly had no assurance it would be a job I would want. As it happened, while I wanted to move back to Atlanta, the job I was offered was in Los Angeles.
• I didn’t think I had a future in my current position. As it happened, I had been tagged as potential partner material.
• I was also gambling that I would enjoy life in the US. I had spent nine months in the US and had made many friends, but would I be happy in this foreign country? Would I miss the safety of being close to my family in England?

I made what I considered to be an intelligent and informed decision. As it happened, my assessment of the facts was partially incorrect (I probably did have a future if I had stayed), but it turned out well for me.

Every time after that, when I took a new job I was gambling.

• In most cases, my old job was disappearing due to downsizing or an acquisition. But in some cases, I had been offered a position with the acquiring company. My assessment was it was better to leave than stay.
• While I had done as much research as I could on my new company, I didn’t have certainty about its prospects or the people I would work with. In one case, nothing was as it appeared during the hiring process — but that’s another story.

Again, I made what I considered an intelligent and informed decision but had no certainty it would turn out well.

When we gamble, whether we call it making a decision or taking a risk, it is crucial that we try to do so intelligently and with all the quality information we can obtain.

When I was in college I played poker with a lot of success. But I didn’t consider it gambling as I knew I was one of only two players at the table who knew what they were doing. I was taking risk, but my assessment was I was far more likely to win than lose and my potential loss was smaller than my potential gain.

Quality information informs and enables quality decisions.

The military planners deciding whether to send troops to rescue hostages in Iran (under Carter) or to capture Al Qaeda leaders (under Obama), would have had to assess:

• The likelihood of loss of personnel and equipment. There was a range of possible levels of loss, from the embarrassment of a failed mission to the loss of the whole team. Each level of loss had its own likelihood.
• The likelihood of success. That also was a range, from partial (such as rescuing a few hostages) to full (bringing them all home). Each level of success had its own likelihood.
• The possibility that their assessments of loss and success were incorrect.
• Whether the likelihood of success warranted taking the risk of failure. That was the gamble they made.
• Were they gambling when they decided to go ahead? There was no certainty about either the potential and likelihood of loss or the potential and likelihood of success.

Poker Risk Management Software

Related Article: Transforming Risk Management in 2019 and Beyond

Implications for Risk Practitioners

What does this mean for the risk practitioner?

Their job is to help the decision-makers make informed decisions and take risks with the knowledge that they are more likely to succeed than fail. After all, it is only by taking risks that any organization can achieve its objectives and succeed.

The risk practitioner has the ability to help decision makers assess the extent and likelihood of a range or potential outcomes, both potential losses and gains. The risk practitioner can improve the likelihood of quality decisions and therefore of success.

Is it gambling when you have what you believe to be reliable information and are making an intelligent decision?

It’s certainly gambling when decisions are made in haste without reliable information on the extent and likelihood of what might happen.

I welcome your thoughts.

Aaron Brown is highly regarded as an authority on the subject of risk management. Although he originally started out as a poker player and sports bettor (then a trader and portfolio manager), for the past 30-years Aaron’s been a dedicated risk manager. And for the past 10-years, he was the risk manager for quant fund, AQR.

Aaron has also authored several books (ranging in topics from poker to finance and risk), contributes to Bloomberg View and writes a column for Wilmott Magazine.

Topics of discussion:

• Aaron describes how his relationship with risk started at an early age, why he became obsessive about money, and tales from playing poker as a 14yo kid.
• Two sides of risk; the math and the deeper part that your conscious brain cannot understand. And benefits of operating at high intensities while sleep deprived.
• The goals and objectives of a risk manager, thinking about everyday life differently, and how Aaron managed the ‘quant equity crisis’ of August 2007.
• “The point of risk management is to keep yourself in a position where you always have flexibility and it’s always a choice whether you want to cut risk…”

Aaron Brown: Poker player, author and former risk manager of AQR Capital Management.

Links and resources mentioned:

Poker Risk Management

• Beat the Dealer [Amazon]
• The Quants [Amazon]

Poker Risk Management Services

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Poker Risk Management Definition

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